The results: Machine vs humans – predicting the Oscars with AI.

1st March 2019 – 3 minutes read  Data & Analytics
Rob Gardner – Content Specialist

The ballots have been counted, the results have been verified and despite our best efforts…the bookies won.

In the end our OscarBot correctly predicted 9 out of 24 wins, compared to Lily’s 13 and the bookies getting 16. No-one predicted the two big shocks of the night – Olivia Coleman winning Best Actress and Green Book winning Best Picture.

Our film buff Lily had this to say about the surprise Best Film winner:

“In many ways, the Oscar preference voting system for Best Picture means that the films that no one really hates tend to win out over divisive but, in my opinion, superior films.”

Our Data Scientist James had this to say about OscarBot’s performance:

“I would say the bot did pretty well with very limited access to any good data, especially twitter data. Given that, it’s still pretty amazing it got 9 right, and it was very on par with a lot of other similar predictive models that had a lot more training.”

Sadly, OscarBot was not available for comment.

Perhaps the lesson here is that without the right data then AI will never win. Or maybe something so political and subjective as The Oscars is just simply impossible for anyone to get 100% right.

The final results are as follows:

CATEGORYOscarbotLILYBOOKIES
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLERami MalekRami MalekRami Malek
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLEMahershala AliMahershala AliMahershala Ali
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLEGlenn CloseGlenn CloseGlenn Close
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLEEmma StoneRegina KingRegina King
ANIMATED FEATURE FILMIsle of DogsSpiderman: Into the SpiderverseSpiderman: Into the Spiderverse
CINEMATOGRAPHYA Star Is BornRomaRoma
COSTUME DESIGNThe FavouriteThe FavouriteBlack Panther
DIRECTINGRomaRomaRoma
DOCUMENTARY (Feature)Free SoloFree SoloFree Solo
DOCUMENTARY (Short Subject)Period. End of Sentence.Period. End of Sentence.Black Sheep
FILM EDITINGThe FavouriteViceBohemian Rhapsody
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMRomaRomaRoma
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLINGViceViceVice
MUSIC (Original Score)If Beale Street Could TalkIf Beale Street Could TalkIf Beale Street Could Talk
MUSIC (Original Song)A Star Is BornA Star Is BornA Star Is Born
BEST PICTURERomaRomaRoma
PRODUCTION DESIGNThe FavouriteThe FavouriteBlack Panther
SHORT FILM (Animated)One Small StepBaoBao
SHORT FILM (Live Action)FauveMargueriteDetainment
SOUND EDITINGBlack PantherFirst ManA quiet Place
SOUND MIXINGA Star Is BornA Star Is BornBohemian Rhapsody
VISUAL EFFECTSFirst ManAvengers: Infinity WarChristopher Robin
WRITING (Adapted Screenplay)Can You Ever Forgive Me?BlacKkKlansmanBlacKkKlansman
WRITING (Original Screenplay)RomaThe FavouriteThe Favourite
Total91316